Jobless rolls at 26-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Unemployment benefit rolls swelled to a 26-year high in the last week of December, data showed on Thursday, while retailers, including market leader Wal-Mart, reported poor sales as the year-long economic slump deepened.

The Labor Department said the number of people still on jobless rolls after drawing an initial week of aid jumped 101,000 to 4.61 million in the week ended December 27, the latest for which data is available.
That was the highest since November 1982 and beat analysts' expectations of 4.50 million, underscoring the difficulty people face getting another job when they are laid off.
"You are still seeing a lot of people of collecting unemployment claims, so the underlying conditions are very poor. The bad news in the continuing claims is relentless," said Pierre Ellis, senior global economist at Decision Economics in New York.
While the overall size of the benefit rolls has been marching steadily higher, the number of U.S. workers submitting new claims for state unemployment aid dropped unexpectedly last week, a second consecutive decline.
Initial claims fell 24,000 to 467,000 in the week ended January 3, the department said, well below the 540,000 new claims economists had expected. It was the lowest reading since the week ended October 11, when it was at 463,000.
Normally this would be seen as a suggestion that the labor market's deterioration was abating, but analysts said the decrease was likely due to people holding back applications because of the holidays.
"It covers a holiday period, so people were delaying filing their claims. There is going to be a surge next week," said David Watt, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in Toronto. "I don't think this is indicative of the trend."

RECESSION DEEPENS
The surge in workers drawing benefits reflects a deepening of the recession that started in December 2007, a downturn many economists think could turn into the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The data came a day before the government issues its report on December nonfarm payrolls. That report is expected to show the economy lost 550,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate jumping to 7 percent from November's 6.7 percent.

The collapse of the U.S. housing market and the resulting financial crisis have caused the loss of a huge number of jobs across a wide spectrum of sectors.
Underscoring the steepening slump, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday the pullback in factory activity in the country's Mid-Atlantic region was more severe in December than originally reported.
Faced with an uncertain economic picture and mounting job insecurity, consumers have cut back on spending.

On Thursday, Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - News), which has been the retailer of choice for consumers watching their wallets, led U.S. retailers in posting disappointing December same-store sales. It also cut its quarterly earnings forecast.

News from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) was also grim. U.S. chain stores sales fell 1.7 percent in December compared to the same period a year-ago.
"This was an extraordinarily difficult holiday season. Retailers were forced to slash prices to entice consumers to spend," said Michael Niemira, ICSC chief economist.
"But even that strategy was not enough as the elevated worry about job insecurity and increased job layoff announcements continued to restrain consumers' willingness and ability to spend."

U.S. stocks initially fell on the weak retail sales reports and the jobless numbers, but ended mixed, with the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) down 27.24 points at 8,742.46.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) rose 3.08 points to 909.73 and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) climbed 17.95 points, to 1,617.01.
"The message is the weak economy is hurting the job market and that will affect consumer spending going forward. There is a serious snowballing process under way," said Decision Economics' Ellis.
In yet more evidence of how households continue holding back, a Federal Reserve report showed consumer borrowing plunged by a record $7.94 billion in November after dropping $2.78 billion the previous month.
The tough economic environment has left consumers either reluctant or unable to access credit.
President-elect Barack Obama, seeking swift passage of his proposed massive stimulus plan, warned on Thursday that the economy could remain mired in recession for years without bold action.
(Additional reporting by Emily Kaiser in Washington, Brad Dorfman in Chicago, Richard Leong and Steven C. Johnson in New York; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.

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Consumer credit drops $8B in November

Consumer borrowing decreased sharply in November as the weak economy continued to weigh on household budgets.
The Federal Reserve said Thursday that consumer borrowing fell by $8 billion in November to $2.571 trillion from an upwardly revised $2.579 trillion in October.
The annual rate of consumer borrowing fell by 3.7% in the month. In October, the annual rate fell by only 1.3%.

Credit card borrowing, or revolving debt, declined at an annual rate of 3.4%. Non-revolving borrowing, including student and auto loans, fell $5.2 billion, or 2.1% on an annual basis.
Economists were expecting consumer credit to have remained unchanged in November, according to a consensus of economists' estimates gathered by Briefing.com.
November's decline "signals that the tight credit markets are starting to affect consumers, and that consumers are becoming less willing to use credit to sustain spending," said Sean Maher, associate economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Banks have tightened lending standards for a variety of consumer loans in recent months as worsening economic conditions threaten to increase the likelihood of defaults.
The Fed's October survey of senior loan officers showed that nearly 60% of respondents had tightened lending standards on credit card loans, while nearly 65% indicated that they had tightened lending standards on other consumer loans over the past three months.
Meanwhile, consumers have been saving more and have become wary of purchasing items with borrowed money.
"The savings rate has been expanding over recent months," said Maher. "Consumers are being forced to save more to offset lost wealth and to prepare for possible job losses."

A report from the Labor Department showed Thursday that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims fell sharply versus last week.

The decline in weekly jobless claims comes one day before the government's closely watched monthly jobs report.
Friday's report is expected to show that the economy lost 500,000 jobs in December, versus a loss of 533,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 7% from 6.7%.
The movement away from spending on credit and toward more savings has mixed implications for the overall economy.
"It's a good thing for long-term credit quality of consumers," said Maher. "Over the near term, it's troubling because there's a risk that the recession could be deeper and more protracted if consumers continue to cut back on spending."

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Ecuador inflation hits 8.8 percent in 2008

Ecuador inflation 8.8 percent in 2008; highest in 6 years

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) -- Ecuador says inflation more than doubled in 2008 to a six-year high of 8.8 percent.
The country's Statistics and Census Institute says inflation on the year was up from 3.3 percent in 2007, in part due to high international food and oil prices and crop losses from flooding.

It is the highest inflation rate since 2002, when consumer prices rose 9.4 percent.

The Finance Ministry had targeted 5 percent inflation in early 2008.
But annualized inflation hit double digits in August, prompting the government to cap prices for some basic foods, restrict rice exports and give subsidies and tax breaks to farmers.
Ecuador uses the U.S. dollar as its currency, which has in the past helped slow price gains.

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Forecast: NYC business taxes on historic slide

NYC report predicts unprecedented dive in business tax revenues after Wall Street meltdown

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Wall Street meltdown and its fallout have caused city budget analysts to predict for the first time that revenue from business taxes will decline for three years in a row in New York City.
In a report released Thursday, the Independent Budget Office blamed the grim forecast on the demise of New York City's major investment banks. Last year, the city had five, and now there are none -- forced out of business, sold off or converted to commercial banks.
The IBO predicted that business tax receipts, after dipping 9.6 percent in 2008, will plunge from $5.4 billion in 2008 to $4.1 billion in 2009, a record drop of more than 23 percent. The report forecasts a further slide to $2.7 billion in 2010.
"Never before have business tax receipts fallen for three consecutive years, nor has the loss of revenue been as large as the one now forecast: a cumulative drop of $2.3 billion, or 38 percent," the report said.
The alarming predictions were part of a larger report on the city's economy. The IBO is a public agency but provides policy and fiscal analysis independently of Mayor Michael Bloomberg's office.

The report contained even more sober predictions than Bloomberg delivered in his November budget update, when he announced budget cuts, job eliminations and tax hikes to help bridge growing gaps.

While Bloomberg has warned that overall tax revenues are on a downward slope, the IBO projects more dramatic drops than the mayor did in November.
The report forecasts that revenues will drop by 7.5 percent, to $34.7 billion, this fiscal year, and another 1.1 percent, to $34.3 billion, in fiscal 2010.

The IBO noted that a prediction of two consecutive years of declining tax revenues marks a "stunning turnaround" from recent years. Following the last economic downturn, revenues grew by nearly 74 percent from 2002 through 2007.
The report also projects that the budget gap for next fiscal year, which begins in July, has ballooned to $4.3 billion. In November, Bloomberg's prediction was $1.3 billion.
A Bloomberg spokesman, Marc LaVorgna, noted that the mayor has been warning about the worsening economic picture since the city's November update, and "will have a complete accounting of the city's budget" when he presents an updated plan in late January.
Last month, after already proposing unpopular cuts and tax hikes, Bloomberg ordered all city agencies to come up with plans to slash spending by another 7 percent next fiscal year. The results of those proposals are expected to be included in Bloomberg's next budget presentation.

He has hinted that more tax hikes might be necessary.

Even as the city tries to solve its own problems, some New York officials are hoping the federal government can help bail them out as Congress works on an economic stimulus package.
Sen. Charles Schumer announced Thursday he would push to get a provision in the package that would let cities and localities share in the state Medicaid relief expected in the stimulus package.
New York is one of 17 states where local governments, and not just the state, are required to share the cost of Medicaid services. Schumer says New York City would stand to get $1.1 billion in direct aid under this provision.

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Forex Volatility

There is one thing in particular that wipes out more trader equity than anything else, the volatility! From 1980's up to this time, the distinctive characteristic of the foreign exchange market was its volatility. A currency volatility that was a reflection of major imbalances between national economies.

Volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security's value. A higher volatility means that a security's value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a security's value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a steady pace over a period of time.
Most forex traders simply can’t deal with volatility. Every trader should learn to deal with it in forex and that means knowing and understanding standard deviation or you will lose all your money! Currencies are volatile, and in theory you can trade for thousands in profits every day.

Volatility is typically measured in two ways

* Historical Volatility

Historical volatility is a measure of how much an exchange rate has varied over a given time period. Historical volatility is backward looking.

* Implied Volatility

Implied volatility is estimated of a security's price. In general, this volatility increases when the market is bearish and decreases when the market is bullish.
Understanding of standard deviation is important in forex trading, it tells you how volatile prices are. So what is it? Standard deviation is a statistical term that refers to and shows the volatility of price in any currency or financial instrument. It measures how widely values are dispersed from the mean or average.

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Forex Trend Following - Using Breakouts Huge Profits

The most lucrative form of trading is locking into and following long term trends in forex that can last for months or years. Most traders have no idea how to profit from forex trend following so we will show you how to do it in 5 simple steps.

1. Be Selective
The first point to keep in mind is that the big trades don’t come around very often so you need to be patient and selective. You don’t get rewarded for trading frequently; you get rewarded for being right.
You can trade less than a dozen times a year and make triple digit gains, if you pick the right trades. So don’t be tempted to get in the market for the sake of it be patient.

2. Watch Breakouts
Forget buying low and selling high – most great trends start from new market highs and you have to be ready to buy these breaks.
If you wait for a pullback you will simply miss the best trends, because when a new trend breaks out - it moves quickly.
The best risk/ reward is offered on the these breaks. Most traders can’t buy breakouts, as they want to buy at a lower better price and wait for a pullback and they never get in and miss the trade.

3. Use a Simple System
To trend follow and catch breakouts you don’t need a complicated system.
All you need to understand are basic trend lines and the concept of support and resistance and that’s it.
A simple forex trading system is best, as it’s easy to understand and easy to apply – if you complicate your system, it will be less robust and will have too many elements which will break in trading.
All the best forex trading systems are simple and yours should be to.

4. Trade Valid Support and resistance only
Keep in mind, you only want to trade breaks that are considered important by the market.
This means that levels have been tested several times, in at least two time frames, preferably a few months.
When these levels are broken, chances are there are stops behind the level wating to be hit and new trend followers waiting to kick in which will accelerate the price trend.

5. Confirm – Confirm – Confirm!
Make sure that any breakout is confirmed by momentum oscillators – this will ensure you filter out false breakouts.
If you are not trading with price momentum, you’re not trading the odds and you won’t win – period.
Only take breakouts confirmed by a rise in price momentum.
We don’t have time to discuss the indicators to use here - but look up: RSI, ADX and the stochastic, as a good place to start.

6. Accept Short Term volatility
Breakout trading can see huge volatility after the initial breakout has occurred, don’t be tempted to move your stop to quickly WAIT.
You’re trying to catch the big trends so accept that you will see counter moves eat into your profits by several thousand a day.
If you want to catch the big trends and make $10, $20, $30,000 or more - accept the drawdowns in the short term and keep your eyes on the bigger prize if you dont you will be stopped out early and miss the big profit you were aiming at.
So there you have it.
A simple, logical system, that can and will pile up huge profits in under an hour a day.
You won’t have to spend much time on this system and you won’t trade very often – but you will make a lot of money and that at the end of the day, is what forex trading is all about.

[Why ForexGen]


1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pip spread in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
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3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. [ForexGen] offers a free trial Forex [demo account] that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis involves the measurement of the net of imports and exports from any one country and the recording of its potential impact on the flow of currency. This type of analysis is also known as current accounts.

Forex currency trading is a fast paced market, and a very fast growing one at that. Almost all industries are involved in forex currency trading – multinational corporations, banks, governments, financial institutions, retail traders, and other institutions can directly or indirectly get involved in the market.
Another hugely unique aspect about forex currency trading is its lack of any actual physical location. The foreign exchange market does not have a central exchange. It is a 24-hour market and is simply an over the counter market which provides services to corporations, banks, investors, and individuals who are either buying or selling currency. Forex trading typically begins in Sydney, and moves slowly around the world with the opening of other financial centers in Tokyo, London, and New York – all of which happen within a single business day.
Several advances in technology have also provided forex currency trading a boost. Any individual interested in trading can set up a Foreign Exchange trading account without having to get involved with any bank and other trading institutes. He may simply do so through online forex trading websites.

A lot of tools are available for use in this fast paced world. So do your homework and start trading – and prepare yourself for an exhilarating ride.

[ForexGen Academy]

If you are an experienced ‘FOREX’ Trader or just a beginner looking for the opportunities offered in the ‘FOREX’ market, [Forexgen] has created ForexGen Academy to give you the chance to get a ‘FOREX’ education and improve your trading skills. No hard expressions, no buzz words, and no rocket science language are used throughout these lessons.
How to Get Started?

People are introduced to the exciting world of foreign exchange in many ways: friends, current events, newspapers, television, and many others. For those of you who are new to forex, the following guidelines cover the basics of currency trading.

also do you Know ForexGen Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pip spread in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.